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Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Andrew, on statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu:
A political party trying to overturn the will of the voters by using physical force and denying the election outcome—that bothers me when it happened in the United States on 6 Jan 2021 (see here for some review of evidence) and it bothers me when it’s happening in a much more extreme way in Venezuela right now. I agree that the statistical error is kind of funny, but it’s hard for me to amused, giving the upsetting context.
He’s responding from a note from Luis Zambrano to his blog, whom I presume is Venezuelan. But I share his amusement:
If it is not evidence of fraud by itself I do not know what is. Anyhow, the image of the Chavista bosses fabricating the results with a napkin and their phone calculators seems to be as plausible as amusing.
It’s been a two rollercoaster weeks. We now have Twitter/X banned for 10 days, Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia in hiding. I still believe we have reached a new stage in the conflict — closer to a democratic Venezuela. But there’s a hard and scary road ahead.